Tuesday, November 13, 2007

DFR -- must have been drunk when I wrote that last comment

Everything I wrote the last time about DFR was partially true -- it is a cheap stock with a high yield. They do have quality assets and in some ways they are a better buy than most bank stocks. Problem is that the one way they aren't is liquidity -- they are at 14X leverage -- a few percent drop in their AAA mortgages thanks to spreads widening and they may have trouble making margin calls on the RMBS portfolio.

that extra risk is a huge deal. Its why DFR is a dangerous stock right now -- the cheap appearance sucks you in but the high leverage could wipe you out. I don't have a good feel for what the odds of wipeout are -- more than zero but less than a lot.

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