Friday, December 14, 2007


Did the trade today -- sold some GGG to buy some more FLIR. If you looked at it objectively, this is unlikely to be a good trade. I did it because I wanted to have more money in FLIR then I had in GGG and I didn't want to sell something else to buy more FLIR to make it bigger than GGG.

I am a huge believer in the growth potential of infrared imaging -- I expect them to keep growing at 20-30% in revenues and to see operating margins expand while producing lots of free cash flow. That's much faster than GGG -- the reason the trade may not work is that FLIR's PE is almost 2X GGG's so much of the faster growth in FLIR is embedded in the expectations of both stocks. I guess I hope its not the case -- that FLIR will grow even faster than many believe or if not faster then at a high rate for longer than most believe.

Been moving slowly with FLIR -- now finally around HALF my eventual position (I hope) which is around 4% -- similar in size to GOOG, CME, UEPS and TSRA. That's 2X most of my other positions such as TECH, FDS, MDT, ILMN, etc. I would love to own more of the others (ex. MDT) at the right prices but so far I have talked myself out of buying.

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