ILMN got smacked today by a few dollars -- after hours it was up I think on Intel's good news but we'll see how long that lasts. Apparently Sequenom also missed last week or so -- now some are arguing that others are missing because IlMN is taking all the money for research dollars into the next gen sequencing. if that is the case then sell ILMN -- it means there isn't any growth overall and even if ILMN shows some growth now through share gains they aren't sustainable. I think downside on ILMN is between $50 and $60 -- if the stock really decides to pull back. That kind of pull back is possible if it turns out that demand for their products is slowing -- not in expectations at all.
I am bummed I didn't have the guts to sell calls when it was almost $80. Might still decide to sell some if it gets above $75. we'll see. heard stories that some consumable companies like SIAL are vulnerable due to inventory corrections -- Yikes but it could make sense -- anything in shortage experiences double ordering until demand catches up.
TSRA -- no new news on the trial front its still wait and see. on the fundamentals side the demand for tech products is slacking off -- quite a few pre-announcements of late suggesting demand is squishy at best. now many are likely pricing related whereas TSRA is driven by unit demand. But still likely some unit issues too. Intel's report suggests demand OK although I haven't read the details. a little less upside potentially but if they win the trials there is still so much revenue at stake that a few less units don't matter.
one that surprises me is LH - -consistent grower that is selling at a cheap valuation. every so often the stock goes flat for a while before jumping 10-15 bucks. we are deep into one of those periods where the stock has ranged from $70 to $80 for over a year. I think there is either a fundamental problem that has not come to light yet or this stock is a great opportunity. bad debt expense is the main issue -- slowing economy means fewer tests and more tests not paid for. That is the risk. seems like its in the stock now.
We are likely heading for new lows -- I know the double bottom but I think that is a head fake -- I think the first low in January was artificially made lower by the societe general trader. Without that the low would have been higher --meaning no double bottom. that's called rationalizing an indicator but reality is too many other indicators are not backing up the double bottom thesis. banks are underperforming on a relative basis -- last 2 times that has happened the market went to new lows. means I should be raising cash again -- hoping for a rally before that happens. The trouble will be that I had a rally to sell into but I kept hoping for more. that's the trouble -- got to know when the rally is out of gas and time to sell.
good luck
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I feel you pain - when to sell, and if, how much of a position? All? Which means playing the game of "market timing" -few are good at it. I, for one, am not, nor do I know anyone who is. Better, then, to stick with the stock in question and look at its "micro"-fundamentals: What, if, let's say, Invitrogen (IVGN) will miss the Q or lower the outlook because of some "inventory correction"? Of course the stock will loose 10-25% in a nanosecond, and I'll be mad that I did not sell all of my stock. But then again, medium to long term IVGN is in the right markets, doing the right things. Unlike many in the Street, I have confidence in its mangement team. So: parting with a promising company which is quite adequately valued, but not overpriced, just because of some (macro)-guessing?? Too bad, if all of a sudden they come up with some unexpected good news (as they did again lately), let alone some takeover offer. Therefore, I stick to my game plan, having a stock like IVGN as a core long-term holding, -but I decided to part with a minority (some 20%) of my position at about current quotations. The same goes for ILMN, and others. As I said before, what is REALLY interesting is: where do you place your LARGE bets. What are the 5-7 large positions? Definitely not some obscure biotech, which I might hold in my diversified biotech portfolio, but rather stocks like Nestle, MCF, QGEN, TECH, Synthes, IVGN, STJ, ANGO (in the order of importance). These positions dwarf some rookie invetments in ARRY or SHFL, or whatever, by a factor of 30-200. Meaning, that we always should talk make clear about what we are talking: about an important, large position, or about an "interesting play" in a certain niche (which might turn out to become a large position later on). However, even a tiny position should be regarded as if it were an important one: Do I really still want to own it? Did the fundamentals change? Has it become overpriced? Just the stuff you are talking about, Kyle. As to ILMN: I sold a part at about 72 and will keep the rest, feeling comfortable with the size of the smallish position. BTW, for the first time I bought into a little bit of AFFX yesterday (at 10.4). It fits well into my newly opened gallery of fallen angels (DUCK, SHFL, MRT; SGP, AMGN, WYE, AFFX) Time will tell....
regards
Dr.John
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