VIX

One more thing -- the VIX near 25 is way over priced!!!! Actual historical volatility has been running in the teens so one of two things have to change -- either volatility needs to jump or the VIX has to continue to drop. To give you an idea what a VIX at 25 means -- think 1.6% daily moves in the S&P 500 2/3 of the time -- so out of 21 trading days in a month we should be seeing 1.6% type moves 14 times. Last 10 trading days maybe 3 make the cut or about half of what is needed to justify a VIX near 25.

Well it looks like I just changed the font - hopefully it will change back next time.

Funny thing is that most think the VIX is too low and is headed higher -- they are reacting to the VIX of the last year that reached 90 and not to actual volatility. They are also fighting the rally and assuming the market is going down at any moment. nope. not gonna happen. not while everyone is expecting and practically wishing for it.

again, that doesn't mean we can't consolidate or pull back at times but no big swoon until either the fed changes dramatically, the economy dives (absolutely no sign yet) or people stop expecting the swoon.