TSRA -- I don't expect much from this call just an update on new technologies, guidance probably won't change -- the wireless business is still going to be hurting but DRAM strength should offset again.
One key issue to keep in mind in terms of the stock is the tax rate -- in 2008 the tax rate starts to move up from near zero towards its ultimate level of 40%. That will soak up a lot of income growth in the next couple of years (i.e. pre-tax income might grow 50% but EPS might barely budge because of the increase share going to taxes). Hard to get the stock moving up when that happens. Its possible it will take 2 years to reach 40% in which case TSRA might be able to show 15-20% growth in EPS, which is much better than zero.
NVT -- unfortunately even if the portable GPS business has a big upside surprise its less than half the total -- in dash units account for more than half of revenues and they are unlikely to see much upside. handsets and online maps are too small to make a difference. I sold some because I knew at $57.75 that the price had jumped on deal talk and I figured it would pull back. It has but not too bad. I have read some street reports that point out there is not too much room for upside -- even if you assume 100% growth in portable units, you get a 4 cent EPS increase -- not enough to matter. If the stock pops on a market rally this week (say to $55 or higher), I will look to sell some more.
UEPS -- Three things that matter:
1. Update on what is going on with the South Africa welfare contract?
2. Update on the south africa wage payment system -- what progress have they made and any hint about how big this will be over the next year or so?
3. Update on Nigeria -- have they gotten started yet or when do they think they will get started? early numbers on how many have signed up so far, etc.
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