market

Can't explain today's action -- market was down and my portfolio was up -- worked out to be almost 1% outperformance, which is an unusually high level. Stocks like FDS, ILMN, GOOG, FLIR and others all had good days with many reaching all time highs!

The whole market looks like a V bottom just like it did in 1998. that doesn't happen often -- check out the chart on GS -- from $230 in July to $160 in August and then $230 again in October. would seem natural that we would pause here around the highs (resistance) after such a sharp move down and up from July to October. Then again -- too many people buying puts (possibly betting on decline but more likely buying insurance against a decline so that they don't have to sell their equity exposure).

Its frustrating because you look at stocks like FLIR and ILMN and its too easy to beat yourself up for not owning more of them -- why didn't I read about ILMN's analyst day sooner -- I looked at their slides and decided I should have more of the stock but I still haven't bought in because its moved up like 20% in the last week or two. Apparently I wasn't the only one that heard what they had to say and thought they needed to buy more of the stock.

FLIR is a great long term story -- they are a good story for the next year but they are growing like 20% or so -- its not a 100% grower like ILMN has been. I don't expect estimates to fly higher after FLIR reports so why chase the stock now? I just don't want to do it because experience has taught me that I'll get a better chance. Then again we have been in a value market for years -- you get chances in that kind of market. In a growth market often times the stocks just go up and that's it. by the time the pull back happens the stock is so much higher than you wanted to buy it that you can't stomach the idea of buying even on a pullback.

The pullback's are also often short and shallow -- so I buy FLIR first at $49.75 and then again at $53.75 on a pullback but I didn't buy again at $56 the next pull back price and I'm kicking myself for not buying a bunch under $50. today it closed over $59. short, shallow and higher than you want. If you have any discipline, this market makes it difficult. It won't last forever but it will certainly try my patience. In the meantime, I'm making money so this might sound like complaining but its definitely not complaining.