more fun

Well that was fun! My Asian funds got crushed! I did mention there was room to sell them a few days ago but I never managed to pull it off.

Bernanke -- tough position he is in -- wants to tough it out but politics getting in the way. It definitely looks like amateur hour over at the fed but its really not his fault. Greenspan's willingness to always hand out liquidity in times of need has caused our market to shift from one bubble to the next. Except that it could be tough to get another bubble started given all the losses in financials. Think about it though -- one moment its so close to the regular meeting why cut in between meetings. Then he cuts anyway? looks like its totally a response to the markets collapsing so it makes him look like he is reacting rather than being proactive.

Fascinating article today on real money by howard Simons -- he claims the dollar has already been in a dollar carry trade like position since the tech bubble burst -- basically acting very similar to the way the Japanese carry trade is used to borrow yen to buy other assets. So if you borrow dollars and then invest in euro denominated assets you have made money the last several years. He argues basically that saying we are like Japan isn't going too far out on a limb because we have been like Japan for the last several years. He argues that since either 99 or 00 the two worst markets in the world have been the US and the Japanese stock market -- the rest of the MSCI World index has beaten the pants off the US.

That's why I might be losing on my Asian funds today but over the next several years the international markets will win vs. the US. Asia should be a big winner from the fed cutting -- doesn't save the financials but it will help the emerging markets perform better.

AB reports wednesday night -- most interesting question is about 2008 guidance. Will they bother to make a guess or will they say its just too hard? What will they say about their hedge fund performance fees -- maybe or no chance? I expect 08 guidance to be around $4.25 to $4.75 but that could prove optimistic if the markets keep dropping.

not sure why TECH got hit so bad today. Could be the sharp decline in WAT stock -- another life sciences stock. I don't know the specific issues surrounding WAT's drop other than 08 guidance was less than expected. I thought about selling some MDT today to buy some more TECH but decided against it. Its several multiple points higher for similar growth. Then again, MDT has been seeing estimate cuts while TECH has been increasing numbers. probably best to wait for the 50's on TECH.