latest thoughts

Thanks Dr John again for your insightful comments. I plan on covering my big money positions this weekend -- hopefully. This is a busy time for me -- got presentation deadlines at work that are taking too long to meet plus my son's birthday party (2 years old) next week so I have family invading soon.

I should just be able to adjust my positions to the right size -- the one I feel comfortable with -- and not worry about it. Unfortunately there are times when this analyst only cares about being right -- not the dollar impact of those decisions. So I have beaten myself up in the past because a trade I have done may have cost me a few hundred dollars -- relatively insignificant compared to the total. Ironically there are other times when I should be concerned -- like DFR -- I throw money down the drain without any agonizing. ILMN is one of those situations where regardless of the actual dollars involved I want to be right -- that's not the way to manage money -- it speaks of a lack of control of my emotions but none of us are perfect.

I'm sure one of things going through my mind is my experience with AFFX -- thankfully a round trip instead of a big loss for me but I bought in the low to mid 30's a few years ago and watched with glee as the stock rose to $60. Never sold a share until it got back down to my cost. I sold because I realized ILMN was kicking their butt. Waiting patiently for ILMN to sell off good enough to feel the risks were low enough and bought in. happy ending so far. Will ILMN head back down to the $30's? anything is possible in such a high change industry but the rational part of me says no way. the irrational part of me? well..........

Anyway, one other topic for the weekend is Pall -- I am going to cover what interests me and why I'm wary of the stock.

Made some comments about the market going to new lows in the last note and then I subsequently read Ken Fisher (Forbes) latest thoughts. He has a great track record of calling the major turning points in the market -- he considers the August to now period as just a correction so he gives himself a pass for not predicting it. So that's the issue for me and him -- he has a great record -- calling the 2000 top and the 2002 bottom (he claims to have called for a bear market in july of 1987 too) but he missed this turn and so far he continues to dismiss any actual decline or fear of decline as no big deal -- just a correction. If you missed the turn this time, you are likely to either keep missing the declines or turn bearish near the end. I doubt he will turn bearish near the end but missing the declines - yep that's possible.

Its really just an exercise for fun -- the goal is to focus on individual stocks and their future potential -- the overall market environment is obviously very interesting but probably too distracting. Time horizon -- if FLIR pulls back on a fall in demand due to the economy should I sell or buy more? I am in for the long term secular march of infrared technology. That is not impacted by the economy but rather only by potential alternative technologies or FLIR's competitive position deteriorating. No evidence of either. At this point though, I don't anticipate too much of a slowdown in FLIR's business -- 50% is government and the rest is in the midst of strong product cycles.

Speaking of the long term position, one hedge fund manager on RealMoney is short ILMN based on valuation and the potential for a slowing in momentum. He also seems to suggest if the stock gets hit that a good buying opportunity is likely to unfold -- its all about time horizon. ILMN should benefit from the genetic revolution for some time to come but that doesn't mean hiccups won't occur along the way (this is me trying to convince myself).

have fun!