Yes I'm still alive and making money

So its been what 10 days? I have been feeling it too -- blog withdrawl -- but life has just been tooooo busy of late. Last weekend was the party for my 2 year old and then my work presentations haven't stopped. but I do have a few moments to catch up on what I have done in the portfolio and the market stuff.

MCO -- bought back the $35 options for a $2 gain and then sold the $40's for June for $1.5. So best case I can only make 20% for owning the stock about 6 months. I can live with that. I expect this rally to peter out soon and us to have a pull back -- too many indicators flashing overbought and sentiment bullish -- if we can any kind of drop I can buy back the options for a gain and look to sell another batch later. I am not as worried about a drop in MCO after their last EPS report so that's why I moved out to the $40's.

FLIR -- wow. what a report. the increase in backlog was huge. the growth in commercial was huge. their momentum is very strong. even high 20's would have been a good buy while the $24 price was an absolute gift that I passed on. Dr John mentions where do you have the big money -- this is the stock I wish I had my big money but so far it hasn't happened. Its an average size position at most for me and it should be one of my largest. just too much of a fraidy cat so far because of the valuation -- trouble is part of the story is the potential upside to the numbers -- something have to keep in mind when worrying about valuation. If FLIR earns closer to $1.5 this year instead of the $1.20, then at $30 the stock was at 20x rather than the 25 I thought it was. A pullback towards $30 and I'll try to add some more and keep trying to get this towards a bigger position.

ILMN -- I sold some May $85 calls for $1.55 on the day after the earnings report. I sold them during the day when the stock was around $80 -- it peaked closer to $82 so I was a little early. Still a few days later when the stock was around $77 I bought them back for a $1 gain. not bad for a few days work. I am working on my timing for June calls -- still looking at the $85's but hoping to get something like $2.25 or so for them. Best case then I will end up selling ILMN for $87 or so -- that's not bad. I am reasonably confident the stock won't get too much above that and therefore worst case I roll the options forward.

DFR -- they issued a press release suggesting book value of over $3 and the stock jumped quite a bit. still haven't sold any but will definitely think about it around $1.80 or so. I am waiting also for the Q1 report. I would like to see some numbers on their current situation and future earnings power. I am betting the UBS guy is right that they can make 40 cents per year, which puts them at about 3x earnings. I think more people will be reassured and buy more of the stock post earnings then will be disappointed with their earnings power and sell.

TSRA -- more revenue than expected but lots more legal -- not surprising given all the events that occurred. Amkor won't be known for another one to two months probably -- in the meantime we wait.

CLB -- wow. what volatility huh? one moment the stock is the 100-120 range and I am debating buying it and then it spikes up to $138 and then just as quick it plummets back to the 115-120 level before jumping back around $122 or so. I listened to their EPS call and it was impressive. these guys know how to run a business. they are very focused on margins and returns on capital. that's always a good thing. they have great technologies and are gaining share in the US. I will look to buy some more of this one and will think of it as a consistent grower as long as energy prices are reasonably favorable.

markets -- lots of old fuddy duddy types out talking bearish and arguing that financials are going to shrink as a percent of the economy and that the world has changed -- no more debt financed growth and all us good US citizens are going to become huge savers. A little bit of truth -- even I have said similar stuff in that mortgage volumes would plummet and that financials would not come back quickly -- that they would become like the tech's -- which remain in the teens in terms of their percent of the market cap in the S&P 500. I expect the Financials to end up there too -- not below 10% but in the teens. I don't envision the US moving huge away from debt -- otherwise I wouldn't be owning Moody's.

Energy/commodities are just about too much money being released by the federal reserve. I'm not buying that one either -- at least when it comes to energy because there just hasn't been enough increase in supply or in production. There are too many countries like venezuela that are pumping too much oil now without spending the money on maintenance and exploration that is necessary to maintain production rates or grow them. The only argument that folks make that makes me wonder is the WSJ editorial page when they talk about the 1970's and the similarities to now. They show a chart that compares oil in dollar and euro terms and it shows that in euro terms oil hasn't gone up nearly as much. This is relatively obvious though given the fall in the dollar. I think the drop in the dollar is the clearest sign the fed has been too easy and perhaps the food shortage commodity price hikes too but energy is harder.

others argue that its due to the speculators buying futures. maybe a few dollars worth but oil is too big a market to be dominated by speculators in my mind.

that's about it for now -- I hope to post again this weekend .