when will it end?

No idea --despite the straight down nature of the decline there has been little panic. Too many have waited for a rally to sell only to regret and sell at a lower price. It reminds me of late 2000 or 2001. On the other hand the volume on friday was enormous -- freddie mac traded over half of its shares outstanding! In one day almost 400 mill shares traded in that stock -- granted I think they are insolvent and a bail out is coming but anyone that wanted out could have easily gotten out on Friday.

Freddie wasn't the only one either -- MCO traded about 4 times their average volume. The stock broke to new lows so the trading range doesn't appear to be holding. If I had any discipline to my investing I would have bought the puts and sold the stock on friday but I didn't based on the idea that Friday was a washout and that this week will bring a respite.

PHX -- can you believe that stock? I didn't buy any yet because I was still trying to figure out what to sell to buy it but man did it take off -- going from near $31 to almost $37 in a week when the markets were crushed! ugh!!!! no news other than the idea they are shifting to the NYSE, which granted should help their exposure. still going to try to figure out getting into that one.

FLIR keeps pumping out new wins yet the stock paused -- I know the estimates are going up the question is how much. lot of expectations there. Its finally getting to a size that matters a little more to me -- I would still love to have that stock be a bigger position in the portfolio but I continue to struggle to find the right sale candidate or the right time -- when I think about selling one I look at FLIR and the stock is up big -- looking for that time when my candidate is up big and FLIR is pulling back some. Perhaps this week -- I'm pretty sure my candidate is reporting -- its GOOG -- I think the world of GOOG but I could also see trimming it some to pay for more FLIR. I think FLIR has more opportunity given its smaller size.

Looking at LH I learned a couple of reasons why the stock is flagging -- economy hurting volume growth -- not surprising that its an issue but they have some offsets like the growth in esoteric testing. The other issue is they have tied themselves to managed care through contracts and yet managed care appears to be struggling -- their stocks certainly are struggling -- wow. UNH though is also seeing membership declines so that hurts Lab Corp's prospects given that UNH is almost 10% of revenues. I continue to see the promise of dna or molecular testing helping LH's growth.

I did finally do the trade between BLUD and POWI. I did it because I think POWI is a better fit with my secular strategy -- the growth in electricity and the need for energy efficiency. Its true that BLUD is benefiting from market share gains but the market itself isn't growing. in POWI's case the market is growing and they have the potential to gain share too. market growth occurs both in terms of unit growth, new applications and market share gains. That plus the business model allows for margin expansion whereas BLUD has peaked. Also the valuations were very different -- POWI is much cheaper.

TSRA -- no resolution yet to their cases although on Monday the ITC case gets started. the Amkor arbitration should get wrapped up soon in terms of a decision. There is talk that the case cared about whether the patents were good or not -- this is a contract dispute so the patents should be considered a given.

The risk to TSRA -- Amkor bought a company that had bought a license from TSRA but as far as Amkor was concerned they didn't use TSRA's technology and therefore they stopped paying. TSRA argues they are owed not only on the one subsidiary that was a licensee but on the rest of the company's volume too. So I can see Amkor arguing that since they themselves didn't sign the license, that they didn't agree to TSRA's patents and therefore the patent questions are eligible for discussion. Don't know if the judges will let them get away with that or not. Reality is the patents are in force regardless of what Amkor thinks. Then its a matter of proving that Amkor packages chips using CSP technologies. If they do, then they owe. Some argue that TSRA is a house of cards just waiting to fall -- I don't see it that way -- I think they have a great franchise. in the next few months we should figure out who is right -- stock will either be $10 or $40 in my mind.

UEPS -- still getting the delay from south africa -- hopefully they will get an answer sometime soon. I still fervently believe in this story.

The trouble for me with TSRA and UEPS is that in my past whenever I have thought something was so attractive I have realized later that there were problems with the story I either ignored or didn't know about. Whenever I have averaged down over time -- as in over years to buy more of a story whose stock just doesn't seem to keep up with the fundamentals I have usually never done really well. My best ideas have usually been stocks that I have had to average up in -- ILMN, FLIR, LH, etc.

That's my caveat to TSRA and UEPS -- and potentially CME and others.

AB -- their assets under management fell 7% in the month of June -- that's a bigger hit than I expected but its still roughly in line with the market meaning their cash flows aren't hurting them too bad. This stock follows the market -- when its up the stock is up and when its down the stock is down. I reinvest dividends to have this longer term volatility working for me. I bought shares at $90+ near the peak and I will buy shares near $40-50 this time. For me the dividend purchases are considered free shares -- I don't consider this putting more money into the stock because the money is coming from the company in the first place. Economically speaking that's wrong -- I could easily reinvest the dividend into another company. Still I believe this is one of my best opportunities -- I think AB is well managed and that over time they have been a winner in the market. Getting hurt now but that just means buying more shares that will be worth a lot more later. During the tech bubble burst I bought shares in the $30s only to see the stock hit $90 a few years later. I think the same thing will happen this time -- I believe the stock will bottom higher than last cycle and the next peak will be meaningfully higher than $94. If I had to guess, I am thinking the next cyclical peak will be near $150.

good luck this week