Wednesday, September 19, 2007

FLIR -- a quick 6%

Never have enough of a stock that goes up 6% in less than a week! oh well. I would be kicking myself right now if I didn't have at least some exposure -- in this case I think I have made $150 so far -- Yippie!!! (sarcasm!) anyway, they got an order from overseas gov for their high end system. This keeps the gov mo going and it also opens up international gov as another growth area. Plus they are in an area where the fed's cuts will help demand.

Some more thoughts on the potential -- Garmin has about 25% of the world wide market for portable navigation devices and is expected to produce total revenues around $3 bill this year. The price of their PNDs ranges from $300 to $1000.

FLIR has 40% share of the commercial/dual use market for infrared tech and they are expected to have $750 mill in revenues and the price of their systems ranges from $2k (tech core for BMWs) to $1 mill (gov system for military use).

I wonder how big FLIR can be when the price of their product gets to $300 -- will they be able to hold on to their 40% share between now and then? I don't think a $300 infrared camera or thermography instrument would engender the same excited purchase behavior that today's PNDs are for Garmin but I have to believe someone would think up some cool applications at those much lower price points for infrared to drive much higher volumes than the current several thousand units FLIR sells.

Over time they will be much bigger -- question is are there valleys in the middle. In some ways I hope so because I would like to buy more.

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