brief thoughts

DFR -- getting interesting again isn't it? one moment not sure they survive and then the next we figure all is fine and now we realize the truth is probably in the middle. given the hits the banks took on their portfolios and that thornburg took (TMA) that led to elimination of the dividend, I guess everything is back on the table at DFR -- meaning we can assume its possible they saw drop to book value as well as they may struggle to earn the dividend this quarter as well they might have sailed right through with no issues. we shall see -- dividend press release should come before earnings.

MDT -- key is to think about what they are likely to do in the future -- are they going to keep growing 15% on the earnings side over the next 3-5 years? unlikely -- but with the stock at 17X not many others believe either.

UEPS -- analyst downgraded last week saying the SA welfare win is already in the stock. maybe but seems to me that this stock could see higher 30's when it actually happens. 25X 08 estimates seems reasonable given that once the deal is announced they also have growth drivers in nigeria and with wage payment too. while welfare might not help 08, the 09 estimates should move up ward post deal.

FLIR -- SLB's drop post earnings explains why I haven't bought more since my last purchase at $53 -- expectations can get ahead of reality. FLIR has great momentum in their business now but they also have a lumpy government business which can cause them to come up short of expectations any quarter. that's the time to pounce because it is unlikely to last.

Bought more CLB on the fall in SLB. I got more at $132, which means I wasn't patient enough because it traded below $130. I don't think what hurt SLB impacts CLB and the drop takes some of the hot air out of the stock prior to earnings. is it likely to see more of a pullback post release -- quite possible. I think longer term my purchases will work out fine but there could be pain first. Everytime I think about the stock being up 13 fold since 2001 I remind myself this is still just a $3 bill market cap stock -- I could easily see them up 10 fold over the next several years.