Friday, February 8, 2008

FLIR, LH, UEPS, MCO

All 4 of the above reported EPS yesterday and all 4 appear to have beaten expectations. I am pretty sure about UEPS but not completely.

Anyway a quick synopsis of their reports as I understand them so far (I have lots more reading to do)

LH -- lab testing is not a glamorous business but it is a nice steady growing one. They have compounded free cash flow at about 7% since I bought the stock in 2002 (or 2003 can't remember right now). Yesterday's report was better than many expected driving a sharp jump in the stock. many think that testng is more economically sensitive so they expect the slowdown to cause a drop in tests or a jump in bad debt expense. Lab corp raised guidance so that probably helped the stock. nice and steady upward although we have been stuck around $80 -- some point this year the stock will push through and head towards $90.

FLIR -- solid again -- they beat revenues and made EPS and raised guidance for both. announced another auto OEM for putting an infrared camera in a car -- won't start up till 2010. auto cycles are long but once in it takes a lot to get out too. stock may tread water for awhile since the PE is so high.

UEPS -- good upside to revenues and EPS but its all about the welfare contract with the south african government -- have to wait for that to be resolved before the stock will really move.

Moody's -- everything was at least in line if not better than many were expecting so the short sellers covered -- we'll see how well the stock holds up in the next couple of days once the rush of covering is done. When Cramer mentioning that a lot of smart investors were getting it wrong I think its the action of TSRA, ILMN and others that he meant -- they gap up 10% on the report and then sell off over the next couple of days once the short sellers are done (so investors were short and shouldn't have been then they ALL covered at once drove the stock up 10% and then went away. The stock falls because the buying pressure disappears.

was yesterday's rally enough after the more than 5% decline of the last few days? no telling but this market sure likes to go to extremes.

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