incremental TSRA thoughts

Last night I wondered about whether QCOM was behind this attack -- turns out it was Amkor. Pretty sharp lawyers relative to TSRA's but I would keep in mind we are early in the fight.

I guess I missed it or just forgot about it but in case anyone didn't know, we changed Chief Legal Officers sometime post the Micron win -- the old guy believed in one major case at a time, while this guy likes to fight multiple front wars (ITC case, Amkor, upcoming DRAM related ITC). Perhaps that strategy was a little too aggressive and perhaps this guy's tactical skills aren't up to the previous CLO's either.

ITC judge is new -- my understanding (can't vouch for accuracy) is that this is his 2nd case at the ITC. He might not know where the proverbial mensroom is yet in terms of how the ITC generally operates.

Amkor has successfully delayed paying for several years now (anyone familiar with the sometimes tenuous financial situation of Amkor knows this has been quite helpful to them at times) -- yes they actually use to pay but then stopped. That is why their case is being handled by an arbitration panel and NOT the ITC -- because they ARE A LICENSEE who has stopped paying, which triggers the arbitration provisions of the license contract. Unless something has changed, the 3 judges are made up of one picked by each side and the third being one they both agreed on.

The company has publicly stated there is no new arguments being made by this set of defendants vs. what previous defendants have used in previous trials. Could it be that Amkor tried a hail mary delay tactic that turned out to be successful? (just because ITC gets delayed doesn't necessarily mean Amkor arbitration will be delayed too but the tactic has certainly changed settlement negotiations and put TSRA back on its heels)

bottom line -- no idea how the appeal goes and no idea how the Amkor arbitration goes but I remain confident that in the end --- even if it takes 2-3 years... TSRA will prevail (IMHO). For trading prior to the appeal or the Amkor arbitration, I would think about options -- the volatilities are very high so be careful but they should serve as a way to limit the amount of capital at risk in this kind of situation. perhaps a strategy that includes selling some volatility as an offset may reduce the risk of the stock rising but the volatility collapsing causing the options to not gain much in value.