Tonight's thoughts

Latest muni auction rate securities crisis -- not a big deal. These firms will find liquidity through other means. Issue is this is another market that has done something no one thought was possible -- a failed auction is not something anyone thought would happen and certainly not 80% of the time! What other markets are about to fail? Its just one of those signs that says how could we possibly have reached the lows already?

Only hope on the market lows is that financials might go down but the rest of the market or at least significant parts are done going down. don't know for sure myself. volume on this rise would certainly make you think this is just a bear market rally.

Most of my stocks fit in well with the secular value theme but I can identify 3 different types:

There are the special situations that are more single event driven at least in the near term:

TSRA -- waiting on the litigation efforts that could add significant value -- perhaps a 50% move in the stock from the $40 level. (option volatilities would argue for a much more muted move into the $40's). Long term story is about the growth in their packaging technologies and their ability to enable electronic miniaturization.

UEPS -- waiting on the south african welfare contract decision. Stock could pop into the mid $30's depending on what happens to pricing and whether they gain any new provinces. Long term its about growing the number of cards and the revenues per card.

MCF -- its all about well drilling results -- either they find gas and make the proven reserves calculation bigger or they don't. Its also a play on nat gas prices rising.

GNVC -- either phase III on TNFerade will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the drug works or it won't. If its close the market potential won't be that great. Could reach between $5 and $10 if it works (next data comes out end of 2008).

Next comes the secular growers with decent momentum -- not necessarily the step function of the event driven stocks but they have great opportunities for big growth ahead:

FLIR -- infrared everywhere.

ILMN -- everyone's genome should be sequenced.

CME -- volatility equals growth in futures trading.

CLB -- need to produce more oil drives demand for reservoir services.

Next comes the slower but more consistent growers:

LH -- 7% free cash flow growth is pretty good. play on growth in testing especially growth in genetic related testing.

FDS -- low to mid teens growth from the proliferation of their new products. less penetrated overseas. extremely consistent growth track record -- strong free cash flow.

MCO -- high single digit growth in debt/ratings revenues across cycles. expect slow U shaped upturn but could see new peak in revenues by 2010. cheap valuation due to concerns about future growth and the sustainability of the franchise.

TECH -- consistent high single digit low double digit revenue growth due to consistent growth in bitoech or genetic/protein related research.

Then there are the money management stocks -- high betas that benefit from both new cash flows to manage and growth in assets from market appreciation.

AB and DFR are the main plays now -- ACAS is one I have owned in the past. TROW and BEN are other choices I have owned.

Income stocks -- EPD, MMP, ERF, -- all energy related. EPD and MMP have some growth in distribution potential.

That leaves a few out so far -- MSFT, MDT -- both are positions I am looking to reduce. GOOG -- they are getting bigger -- which makes the big outperformance harder. could easily put this one in with FLIR and CME. There is also the two staples -- Pepsi and Wrigley.

That's one perspective on how I think of these holdings.